bitcoinist.com

Hong Kong has postponed its first batch of stablecoin licenses amid money laundering concerns that could warrant stricter KYC rules.

Hong Kong Has Delayed Its Initial Batch Of Stablecoin Licenses

As reported by Wu Blockchain, citing coverage from Caixin, Hong Kong has postponed the issuance of its first stablecoin approvals, meaning that applicants would be waiting for longer before they can receive a license.

Hong Kong first passed its stablecoin bill in August 2025, making it so that organizations looking to issue stablecoins in the Chinese city’s jurisdiction will need to acquire approval from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).

Following the rollout of the new rules, HKMA started receiving applications from big names like Standard Chartered in its Joint Venture (JV) and HSBC. The first batch of approvals was expected to go out by the end of March, but now April has begun, and no licenses have been handed out at all.

“Hong Kong is concerned that stablecoins may be used for money laundering and may therefore implement stricter KYC regulations,” noted Wu Blockchain. The delay has thrown a wrench in the plans of 36 applicants. Earlier, mainland Chinese regulators cracked down on the sector, stating that fiat-tied cryptocurrencies don’t qualify as legal tender, as they fail to meet regulatory requirements and pose a risk of being used for illegal activities.

Despite the mainland’s stance, however, Hong Kong still moved forward with its stablecoin plans, announcing in February that a “very small number” of issuer licenses would be handed out in March. With that plan not coming to fruition, it now remains to be seen when the HKMA will be able to advance the city’s stablecoin ambitions.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea has also seen its stablecoin plans stall, with the Bank of Korea (BoK) arguing for bank-majority stablecoins, while the Financial Services Commission (FCS) advocates for laxer rules.

Meanwhile, Japan took ahead of its neighbors with the launch of its first yen-backed coin last year. The nation could also see its first bank-backed stablecoin this year, with Shinsei Trust and Banking planning on a Q2 2026 launch.

Over in the United States, President Donald Trump signed into law the GENIUS Act last year, providing a formal framework for stablecoins. Overall, this part of the cryptocurrency sector has seen significant global regulatory momentum over the past year, so it’s not surprising to see that its market cap has held up relatively well despite the recent market downturn.

As the chart from DefiLlama shows, the market cap of the fiat-tied tokens has mostly moved sideways in recent months, with its value currently sitting at $316 billion, a new all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,700, down over 4% in the last week.

XRP’s price action has managed to hold above $1 for over a year, but technical analysis shows this could be over soon. Notably, technical analysis from crypto analyst CasiTrades warned about a bearish outlook on the token, with the outlook that there’s still a multi-stage decline in play, which could cause the price of XRP to fall to as low as $0.87.

Weak Bounces Signal Sellers Still In Control

CasiTrades flagged the character of recent relief moves as a bearish signal. According to the analysis, XRP’s recent price behavior is showing clear signs of exhaustion on the upside. This is because every bounce has been cut short around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a clear indication that sellers are still in control of the price action.

This repeated rejection at shallow retracement levels is a reflection of another broader issue the XRP price is currently facing: buyers are not stepping in with enough strength to change momentum. Instead, each bounce is being sold into quickly, keeping the altcoin locked in a downward structure.

The structure outlined in the analysis follows a clear Elliott Wave breakdown, with XRP playing out a Wave 3 move to the downside. In the context of Elliot Waves, Wave 3 is the most intense part of both bullish and bearish wave cycles.

Based on this count, XRP is projected to drop to as low as $1.09 during Wave 3, with intermediate subwave targets around $1.06. These levels are based on previous liquidity zones and Fibonacci retracements at 0.786 on a larger cycle and 1.618 on a lower cycle. 

A temporary relief bounce is expected afterward, which would create the next impulse Wave 4. Wave 4 is expected to push the XRP price back into the $1.22 to $1.31 range. However, this move is going to be a brief correction against Wave 3, and the broader bearish trend will still be in place.

Sub-$1 Scenario Comes Into Focus

After Wave 4 comes Wave 5, which is a continuation impulse wave in Elliott Wave theory. The most notable part of the forecast lies in how XRP ends up in Wave 5, which is the final leg of the structure. After the projected relief bounce, the analyst predicted a continuation lower toward a major macro support zone around $0.87. This price target is based on the 0.854 Fib retracement on the larger cycle.

Interestingly, the chart above shows that these five impulse wave counts are subwaves of a larger Wave 2 (labeled in green in the chart above), which is also a corrective wave in the Elliott Waves Theory. A bottom around $0.87 is not the end, as the next move would be the larger Wave 3, which is predicted to take the XRP price back above $2.

Bitcoin treasury companies have long relied on relentless accumulation of BTC to strengthen corporate balance sheets. But a recent pause in both Bitcoin purchases and equity sales raises an urgent question: is this a temporary slowdown, or an early signal of broader structural strain for corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies?

Strategy Breaks Bitcoin Purchase Pattern

For the first time since December 2025, Strategy reported no Bitcoin purchases during the week of March 23 to March 29, 2026. A filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed this break in routine, which also included no share issuance through its at-the-market (ATM) program—the primary mechanism used to fund Bitcoin accumulation. Before the pause, Strategy’s last purchase was 1,031 BTC between March 16 and March 22, 2026, reflecting a sustained weekly acquisition strategy.

Moreover, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has not publicly explained the pause, a notable silence given his historically regular weekly updates. This combination of halted buying and silence has fueled discussions on whether the era of aggressive corporate Bitcoin accumulation may be under pressure.

BTC Treasury Companies Under Pressure: Market Context

Strategy’s stock, trading at $124.80 at the time of reporting, has declined more than 60% over the past six months, while Bitcoin itself was priced at $67,197, down over 18% across 12 months. These figures illustrate a tightening environment for companies relying on both equity and digital assets to support treasury strategies.

Other firms demonstrate divergent approaches. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC, valued at roughly $1.1 billion, to reduce convertible debt, while Canaan increased holdings by 1,793 BTC and 3,952 ETH while expanding mining operations in Texas. Additional insight comes from Nakamoto Inc., which sold approximately 284 BTC for $20 million in March 2026, below its year-end 2025 weighted valuation of $87,519 per coin. This sale followed a $166.2 million loss from changes in the fair value of its digital assets and reflects a broader recalibration among non-Strategy treasury firms. Nakamoto indicated that proceeds would fund a US dollar operating reserve to support operations and strategic initiatives.

Additional disclosures in the Strategy’s filings provide context on corporate obligations that may influence capital decisions. A shareholder lawsuit filed by David Dodge in July 2025 over preferred stock amendments was dismissed in March 2026, with Strategy agreeing to seek shareholder ratification and cover $550,000 in legal fees.

The combination of halted Bitcoin purchases, no share issuance, declining stock and Bitcoin prices, and similar moves by other treasury firms illustrates a period of recalibration across the sector. Strategy now holds roughly 76% of all BTC owned by public treasury companies, while most others have added minimal holdings in recent weeks. Whether this moment marks a temporary pause or the beginning of the end for Bitcoin treasury companies remains uncertain, but the current data underscores the growing pressures on firms pursuing this once-dominant strategy.

Bitcoin may be demonstrating slightly bullish momentum as the market slowly stabilizes, but investors’ sentiment has not fully flipped positive, especially among large holders. Over the past few weeks, these investors, who are often known for driving major moves, have been leaning toward a bearish state, as evidenced by their persistent positioning on the short side.

Whales Keep Short Pressure On Bitcoin

Just as Bitcoin’s price struggles to regain stability, the underlying sentiment in BTC is telling a more nuanced story. Even after several weeks of demonstrating bearish action toward Bitcoin, large investors or whales are still betting against the flagship cryptocurrency asset. 

Amid heightened price swings, activity from large holders of Bitcoin has noticeably positioned on the short side, signaling growing caution in the market. Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of the Alphractal platform, outlined this development on X following his analysis of the Bitcoin Whale Vs Retail Delta metric. 

These investors continue to maintain a bearish stance, with many still opening more short positions as BTC keels trading within a tight range. Given the influence of whales on the market, this trend is one that demands attention, as it could reshape the asset’s next direction.

Looking at the chart, it is clear that large holders are increasingly positioning in shorts while retail investors are doing the opposite. This divergence signals changing sentiment where big investors are expecting a decline in price and retail holders are betting on a potential bounce in the short term. 

According to Wedson, retailers are chasing an infinite upside, but whales are becoming more cautious about Bitcoin and its near-term trajectory. As the divergence expands, this triggers speculation of whether the trend might precede increased volatility or shift the trajectory of BTC.

BTC Whales Are Taking A Break From Selling

On cryptocurrency exchanges, whale activity appears to be undergoing a notable shift. In a report from CryptoQuant’s verified author Darkfost, it was revealed that whale selling activity is cooling down on Binance, the leading trading platform, suggesting that large investors on the platform are choosing to hold during volatile conditions.

Related Reading: Crypto Market First Major Outflow In 5 Weeks – Here’s How Bitcoin And Ethereum Performed

According to Darkfost, whales became more active on the platform as BTC slowly moves closer to the $60,000 level. This slowdown in selling pressure comes after multiple transfers of large portions of BTC into the Binance exchange.

Their activity peaked on February 4, when more than 11,800 BTC were sent to the platform in a single day. By the end of February, the coins moved into the platform per day increased from around 1,000 BTC to nearly 4,000 BTC, which reflects a more pronounced distribution phase from large holders.

Nonetheless, since the wave of transfers in February, the situation seems to have flipped significantly. Whale activity has declined notably, with the 30-day moving average now sitting around 1,600 BTC sent to Binance per day. The decrease in whale deposits indicates that large players are adopting a wait-and-see approach in the current uncertain market environment.

The Bitcoin price has been in a prolonged downtrend but saw a slight reprieve this week, rising a bit by 2%. Despite the minor gain, the cryptocurrency remains in a broader bear market, and as of today, its price is still in the red and could continue to decline if momentum does not improve. A major driver behind BTC’s weakness is the recent outflows from its Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Even as institutional demand declines, the market remains under bearish pressure and faces heightened volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Bitcoin Price Crash Continues As ETFs Record Outflows

Since debuting in 2024, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have played a significant role in driving BTC prices, with the volume and consistency of net daily flows often influencing the market’s direction. When these ETFs record major outflows, it typically suggests that institutional investors are reducing their exposure, likely due to profit-taking, risk management, or shifting market sentiment. Regardless of the reason, the reduced demand tends to place downward pressure on the Bitcoin price.

Notably, data from SoSoValue indicates that Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more outflows than inflows last week, a trend that has noticeably affected prices. On March 18 and 20, these ETFs saw total outflows of $305 million, followed by a modest influx of capital the next day. 

The most recent outflows, which appear to be contributing to Bitcoin’s ongoing downtrend, occurred on March 26 and 27. On Thursday, withdrawals from Spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $171.22 million, further exacerbated by an additional $225.48 million outflow the following day. 

According to SoSoValue, the bulk of these outflows came from BlackRock’s IBIT, which alone saw $41.92 million exit on Thursday and a staggering $201.5 million outflow on Friday. Other funds, including Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC, also recorded outflows during the same period. 

As of now, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net positive territory, with cumulative inflows totaling $56.12 billion after ending its two-day outflow streak and receiving over $187 million over the last two days. Despite renewed demand, Bitcoin’s price is down, recording a year-to-date decline of roughly 40%. The cryptocurrency is also trading below the $70,000 level, hovering just above $68,000, at the time of writing. 

Other Factors Influencing Price

In addition to the earlier decline in ETF demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions appear to be significantly influencing investor sentiment, further pressuring BTC’s price. The latest update regarding the US-Iran war reveals that no formal peace agreement has yet been reached, even as President Donald Trump’s April 6 deadline to resume strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure approaches rapidly. 

As of now, Market watchers continue to monitor changes in oil prices, ETF inflows, and any diplomatic developments that could impact the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

XRP closed Q1 2026 with a 27.1% decline from its quarter open, extending a correction that has now erased more than 60% from the token’s July 2025 high of $3.65.  The current structure now leaves the XRP price at an important decision point heading into Q2, where the next move could show whether this is a pause before recovery or part of a deeper correction below $1 in the new quarter. A recent technical analysis shared on X lays out both possibilities, but the tone says caution is the dominant theme for now.

Q1 Played Out As Expected. Here’s What The Analyst Got Right

Going into Q1, the analyst had flagged that XRP’s correction in 2025 was not yet complete and that one more low was likely before the formation of any sustainable rally. That forecast proved accurate. XRP dipped below $1.20 in early February, precisely within the support zone the analyst had identified. The dip eventually bottomed around $1.16 on February 6 before a recovery of about 55% from that low in the same month.

The move, however, did not translate into a full trend reversal, and the XRP price struggled throughout March. Price action across the weekly structure still reflects a market struggling to reclaim strength. The rebound failed to push into higher resistance zones above $1.5. This bearish price action eventually ended up with a negative 2.79% close in March, which is the sixth consecutive month of bearish closes.

XRP Weekly Price Chart. Source: @Morecryptoonl On X

A Temporary Bounce In Q2, But Not A Full Bullish Reversal

As it stands, the XRP price is now sitting at an important decision point, and the analyst is distinguishing between two scenarios heading into Q2. The primary focus is on whether it can sustain a corrective bounce, which is labeled as a “B wave” based on the Elliott Wave theory, back to the $1.76 to $2.86 resistance band.

According to the analysis, any meaningful recovery in Q2 would need to push decisively into this region. A move above $2 would begin to validate the idea of a broader rally. This prediction is based on the 50% Fibonacci extension at $2.03380 and the 61.8% level at $2.34157, both on the weekly chart.

The current expectation leans toward a corrective bounce rather than a full breakout. A move higher in April or early Q2 is considered possible, especially since a similar bounce already occurred earlier in the year.

However, the structure of that bounce matters more than the bounce itself. If the price action forms a three-wave move upward, it would likely confirm a B-wave scenario, meaning the rally is corrective in nature and not the start of a new bullish cycle.

In that case, the XRP price could still be setting up for another leg down (a C wave), which may unfold later in Q2 or extend into Q3.

XRP Investors on Coinbase have been leaving the trading platform at a rapid rate, as evidenced by a sharp contraction in available supply. An interesting part of this development is the trigger behind the decline in supply on the Coinbase platform.

Coinbase Sees Declining XRP Supply

Recent news surrounding Coinbase is garnering significant attention in the broader cryptocurrency space, which appears to have affected XRP holders on the leading American-based crypto exchange. As a result, there has now been a sharp decline in supply on the platform.

Crypto enthusiast and advocate Diana on X shared that supply has declined on the exchange over the controversial CLARITY Act, effectively staging a boycott that is tightening liquidity. Amid a growing wave of holder resistance, this change highlights growing tensions between the XRP community and regulatory initiatives.

As of late March 2026, the altcoin’s balance on Coinbase has dropped to about 101.86 million XRP after a boycott. Historically, these kinds of behavior have influenced price movement in the upcoming weeks or months, making it a crucial moment for the token and its short-term trajectory.

As the development swells across the space, some analysts are claiming that the supply plunged by almost 90% in just a few months. This trend has been attributed to 2 major issues currently taking place in the crypto market that have left investors speechless. One of the issues is that Coinbase is allegedly blocking the CLARITY Act by rejecting bill drafts in two separate scenarios. The other is the leaked claims that Coinbase requested millions of dollars from Ripple Labs to list XRP back in 2019. 

Diana highlighted that recent 30-day snapshots point to net outflows, ranging from around 20 million to 95 million XRP. What this means is that holders are pulling their coins off Coinbase and moving them to self-custody or other exchanges. If this withdrawal trend persists, Coinbase might end up holding one of the lowest XRP reserve levels the company has seen in years. Furthermore, Diana stated that the trend could lead to a supply shock if buying pressure comes back.

How High Can The Altcoin Go

With the market being highly volatile, many investors find XRP’s outlook unclear. However, Don Digital Finance has delved into the conversation, offering key insights on the altcoin’s path and how high it can actually go in this cycle.

Starting off, the expert highlighted Standard Chartered’s prediction, which claims that the altcoin could be valued at $10.40 by 2027. Some models have predicted an $8 value this year, while others forecast XRP to reach as high as $40 and beyond in the long run.

A $40+ valuation implies a $2 trillion market cap for the altcoin, and the expert declares that this is where real institutional adoption will begin. An $100 valuation is not completely off the table, but it will take the cryptocurrency to become a global asset alongside a crypto move to hit this level.

In the meantime, the most realistic price level for the token is somewhere around $8 to $40 this cycle. At this point, the conservative view sits around the $5 to $15 range, but the expert’s main target for this cycle is $28.

Crypto pundit Diana has drawn attention to plans to launch native XRP lending on the XRP Ledger, which treasury firm Evernorth will be heavily involved in. This is expected to unlock up $100 billion in idle capital as investors seek yield from their holdings. 

Native XRP Lending Plans To Unlock $100 Billion In Idle Capital

In an X post, Diana stated that Evernorth is officially launching XRP lending on the XRPL, which would unlock $100 billion in capital. The treasury firm plans to bring native lending on the Ledger through the proposed XLS-66 amendment. She added that there are already 473 million of the altcoin in the treasury and that there is a vision to unlock up to $100 billion in dormant capital through yield-generating activity. 

Further commenting on what this native lending entails, Diana noted that it is built directly into the Ledger and will feature single-asset vaults, fixed-term and fixed-rate loans, automated on-chain repayments through smart contracts, and zero-knowledge proofs for confidentiality. Furthermore, this native lending feature eliminates the need to bridge, wrap XRP, or face custody risks just to earn yield on one’s holdings. 

Diana highlighted how this could draw more institutional investors as they can finally deploy liquidity without leaving the Ledger or relying on external smart contracts. The pundit noted that XLS-66 is not yet live and is currently in the validator voting phase. The proposed amendment needs an 80% supermajority vote to get activated. However, this provides insight into what lies ahead for the the Ledger, with yield on the horizon. 

It is worth noting that at the moment, investors have had to bridge their assets to other networks, such as the Flare network. Last year, Flare launched earnXRP, which is the first fully on-chain yield product denominated in the altcoin.

Why It Matters To Earn Yield Natively On The Ledger

Evernorth Chief Business Officer Sagar explained that earning yield on the Ledger rather than bridging to other networks matters because bridging can trigger a taxable event in most jurisdictions. He also highlighted the risk of trusting “unproven” smart contracts on other networks with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake. On the other hand, the XLS-66 protocol relies on the Ledger’s security, and with native lending, there is no wrapping or new risk surface. 

As such, he is confident that institutional investors will be more willing to participate once native lending is activated. He also remarked that he is excited about this feature because lending makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts, including XRP payments, which are currently carried out on the Ledger. 

At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price is trading at around $1.34, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

CoinShares (CSHR), one of Europe’s largest crypto asset managers, made its long‑anticipated US market debut on Wednesday after completing a merger with Vine Hill Capital that created the holding company CoinShares PLC. 

The transaction, first announced in September and closed late Tuesday, values the business at about $1.2 billion and included a $50 million strategic investment from institutional backers.

CoinShares’ CEO Urges Patience After 25% Slide

The listing, however, got off to a rocky start. On its first session on the Nasdaq, CoinShares’ shares plunged roughly 25%, trading just below $8.30 at the time of writing, according to Yahoo Finance data. 

The sharp sell‑off reflects broader turbulence in digital‑asset stocks and follows months of heightened volatility tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. 

Major crypto tokens such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have struggled to mount sustainable rallies during the same period, putting additional pressure on firms focused on crypto products.

CoinShares CEO Jean‑Marie Mognetti pushed back against reading too much into the market’s initial reaction. Speaking to Barron’s, he said the company’s US listing was driven by readiness rather than market convenience. 

“We are not listing because the market is easy. We are listing because the business is ready, and that’s much more important,” Mognetti said, stressing the company’s long‑term strategy over short‑term share price movements.

deSPACs Average 60% Drop In Year One

CoinShares’ US listing is structured as a deSPAC — the operating company formed after a Special Purpose Acquisition (SPAC) merger — and deSPACs have generally performed poorly post‑deal. 

Data compiled by SPAC Research and cited by Jay Ritter, director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida, show that deSPACs have fallen on average about 60% in the 12 months following their mergers over the last five years. 

In his conversation with Barron’s, Mognetti framed the SPAC route as a regulatory and practical choice to facilitate the company’s cross‑border listing rather than as an urgent need for liquidity. 

He also told reporters he remains untroubled by the initial market sell‑off and urged patience: “Give us time to just put real numbers out. The market will decide after that.”

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Australia has passed its first comprehensive digital-asset framework, locking in a licensing regime for crypto platforms and custodians under the existing financial‑services law.

A New Comprehensive Crypto Framework

The Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 that passed just today has one key requirement. Now, most centralized exchanges and tokenized custody platforms that hold client assets must obtain an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), coming under ASIC’s full oversight on custody, disclosure, governance, and risk management.

Rather than policing individual crypto assets, the law zeroes in on the intermediaries that hold costumers’ funds, seeking to curb risks such as fund mixing, bankruptcies, and asset abuse that have fueled past crypto blowups.

The law doesn’t just cover spot trading. It carves out two fresh classes of regulated firms: DigitalAssetPlatforms (DAPs) and tokenized custody platforms (TCPs). The legislations subjects them both to the same fundamental rulebook that governs brokers and asset managers. This is key for real‑world asset tokenization and institutional products.

According to the bill itself, businesses will have 18 months to comply with the new licensing and operational standards. The only exemptions are for very small providers with low annual transaction volumes. It is worth noting that this 18-month shift could create temporary friction in on‑ramps, liquidity fragmentation, and higher spreads as platforms rework banking relationships and risk controls.

What This Means For The Market

Bringing exchanges and tokenization providers fully under the Corporations Act could finally give TradFi the legal certainty it has been waiting for. With these businesses operating under the same familiar framework that governs traditional securities and managed funds, banks, pension funds, and asset managers gain clearer lines of accountability, standardized disclosures, and enforceable investor protections. That clarity lowers reputational and compliance risk for institutions that have been reluctant to touch digital assets, potentially opening the door to new products, deeper liquidity, and more direct participation in tokenization and crypto markets.

The new legislation, introduced and read for the first time at the ending of November 2025, could unlock up to A$24 billion a year in productivity and efficiencies across the financial sector if tokenization and digital asset infrastructure scale, government‑backed estimates. The now passed bill positions Australia as one of the most proactive jurisdictions in the global race for crypto regulation. This new more EU‑style, MiCA‑like regime competes with hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong in the race to host compliant digital asset platforms.

Short term, it is safe to expect the possible delistings of niche tokens, tighter onboarding and KYC, and periodic volatility as local liquidity migrates toward fully licensed venues. Medium term, we could see deeper order books on fewer, heavily supervised platforms, more institutional flow, growing tokenization plays, and a clearer split between “regulatory premium” assets and unloved, hard‑to‑list tokens

If the framework lands well, Australia could become a regulated gateway for Asia‑Pacific crypto capital.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview

The prospect of a US military withdrawal from Iran within the next 15 to 20 days is already sending ripples through the global markets. From the price of Bitcoin to the cost of a barrel of crude, investors are scrambling to figure out if we are looking at a genuine de-escalation or just a temporary calm before another storm.

A Conditional Departure

Speaking to reporters, US President Donald Trump suggested that the current conflict might be nearing its end, hinting that US forces could wrap up operations “soon.”

While the White House is floating a two-to-three-week timeline, there’s a major catch: Washington isn’t leaving until they feel their military objectives are met.

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks and Tehran did not have to make a deal as a prerequisite for the conflict to wind down.

The remarks underscored the shifting and at times contradictory…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 1, 2026

The markets reacted almost instantly to the news. Traders and investors saw stocks tick upward while oil prices finally caught a break, cooling off as the fear of a total blockade in the Strait of Hormuz began to fade.

Interestingly, officials have clarified that this isn’t about a peace treaty; it’s a strategic exit based on how much of Tehran’s military capability the US can dismantle before heading for the door.

The Volatility Window

Despite the optimistic talk of leaving, the situation on the ground is far from settled. Reports of ongoing US strikes suggest that the next few days could still be quite violent. Trump has made it clear that he wants to “degrade” Iran’s ability to fight back before pulling the plug, which leaves traders in a difficult spot.

If the exit happens fast, we’ll likely see a massive relief rally. If the military gets bogged down in “one last strike,” expect volatility to come roaring back.

Bitcoin Braces For A Move

Crypto traders are perhaps the most tuned-in to this window. Bitcoin has spent the last week acting like a geopolitical barometer, swinging wildly with every headline out of the Gulf.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering in that $68,300 to $69,000 range, stubbornly holding onto support. The “smart money” seems to be playing both sides of the fence right now.

NOW – Trump says the U.S. will leave the Iran War in 2 or 3 weeks. pic.twitter.com/p0j83neowV

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 31, 2026

The Bitcoin bull case would be a clean US exit removes the “uncertainty tax” on risk assets, potentially sending Bitcoin back toward all-time highs.

The bear case would be the withdrawal timeline slips and more strikes occur, we could see a “flush out” as investors flee to traditional hedges.

For now, the message from Washington is loud and clear, but it comes with a massive asterisk. The US is packing its bags, but it’s going to make sure it finishes the job before it leaves the room.

Featured image from Reuters/Kevin Lamarque, chart from TradingView

The South Korean police have uncovered a criminal ring that offers revenge services to clients, with every job paid for in crypto.

“We will take revenge in your behalf” As Long As You Pay In Crypto

Red paint on the door. Human waste on the stairwell. Defamatory leaflets scattered through the building. A Telegram channel with self destructing messages offering revenge “on demand” for any interested vindictive crypto-owner. This is not the premise of a Korean action movie, but an actual case the Korean police is currently investigating.

South Korean outlets reported on Monday that the Gyeonggi Southern Provincial Police Agency have now linked at least six similar “revenge attacks” across cities like Hwaseong, Uiwang, Gunpo, Pyeongtaek and Paju, all allegedly commissioned over private Telegram channels and funded with small crypto payments. None of the crimes have yet been reported in Seoul, according to the police.

Price offers include around $325 in crypto to blanket a neighborhood with flyers falsely branding men as child sex offenders or women as prostitutes. For up to roughly $1,300, you can go for more extreme harassment, like smearing human waste on doors and stairwells, gluing locks, and aggressive graffiti.

Inside Some Of The Grueling Crypto Revenges

On February this year, the Gyeonggi police arrested two men in their 20s in two separate cases, for breaking into multi-unit dwelling, scattering food waste and human feces on apartment front doors and spray-painting them and posting threatening flyers, Dong-A Ilbo claims. Both men confessed they carried out the attacks after being paid 600,000 to 800,000 won in cryptocurrency by an anonymous “boss” they had connected with on Telegram.

In January, the police pulled off a rare move by arresting an entire four‑person crew, including a ringleader in his 30s. In a particularly brazen twist, they allegedly hired a man in his 40s under the guise of a consulting role at a Baedal Minjok outsourcing firm to steal the personal data they needed. Investigators say he went on to access more than 1,000 individuals’ details for purposes unrelated to customer support.

Nobody in the chain knows each other’s real identities.

According to JoongAng Ilbo, the criminal rings advertised for customers through the social network X, with slogans like: “We will take care of even your most unspeakable problems, from bank‑account blackmail and infidelity to school bullying offenders and scam victims, in a satisfying way.”

Reporters Kim Jeong-jae and Han Chan-woo actually contacted some of this operators to uncover the working methods of the organizations. One of this brokers told them that they don’t carry out actual killings, but will resort to physical assaults if needed. The broker laid out four main revenge tactics: fabricating criminal allegations, cutting off the target’s financial access, wrecking their reputation within their social circle, and staging accidents that cause bodily harm. The claim went as far as assuring they could pin unsolved crimes on the chosen victim and even push cases far enough that the person ends up with a prison sentence or a hefty fine.

Reporter Kim Kang-woo for the Kiho Ilbo explained their modus operandi meticulously. Members of the organizations recruit perpetrators using bait such as “high-paying part-time jobs.” The handlers supplied details like the victims’ home addresses and common entrance codes, along with step‑by‑step instructions for the job. The attackers carry out the crimes mostly at dawn, when streets are quiet. They take care to avoid cameras by wearing hats and masks to hide their faces from nearby CCTV. Afterward, they snap “proof” photos of the damage on their phones and sent the images back to their superiors.

What This Means For The Market

South Korea is not the only country suffering from very dark crypto-linked crimes. Famous cases include the 2015 Silk Road saga, with its developer Ross Ulbritch being sentenced to life in prison for building a dark web platform where users could purchase drugs and other illicit services using Bitcoin. He was later granted a pardon by US President Donald Trump in January 2025.

The North Korea‑affiliated Lazarus Group has funneled billions of dollars in stolen money through cryptocurrency networks.

As South Korean police hunt for the still‑unknown masterminds and brokers, these cases become fresh ammunition for politicians who want tougher controls on self‑custody, mixers and privacy tools. Every lurid headline about crypto‑funded harassment helps justify stricter travel‑rule enforcement, tighter exchange surveillance and potentially harsher penalties for non‑compliant platforms. This trends can affect liquidity, on‑ramps and volatility even if the underlying use‑cases are tiny in value terms.

Serious traders should treat this as a sentiment and regulation signal. The more crypto is linked to cheap, personalised violence, the stronger the case for intrusive oversight.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

A company that built its name on cryptocurrency mining is walking away from the business entirely. Bitfarms announced plans Tuesday to rebrand as Keel Infrastructure and move its legal base from Canada to the US, capping a five-month exit from Bitcoin that management described as a deliberate break from the past.

No Half-Measures In The Company’s New Direction

CEO Ben Gagnon made the company’s position plain during an earnings call. “No half-measures, no compromises, and in time, no Bitcoin,” he said. “We built a new company.” Bitfarms is now focused on building and operating data centers that power high-performance computing and artificial intelligence platforms.

According to company filings, it is developing a 2.2-gigawatt infrastructure pipeline across North America, targeting what it calls hyperscalers and next-generation cloud providers.

The rebrand and the relocation have both received shareholder approval. The move to the US signals a deliberate repositioning — one aimed at tapping a market where AI infrastructure spending has been climbing steadily.

A Year Of Heavy Losses Tied To Falling Bitcoin Prices

The company’s 2025 financial results, also released Tuesday, showed a net loss of $284.5 million — wider than the year before. Revenue rose 70% year-on-year to close to $230 million, but the cost of generating that revenue came in at $248 million, producing a gross loss before other expenses were counted.

General and administrative costs also increased. A swing in the fair value of digital assets cost the company almost $51 million last year, compared to a $26 million gain in 2024. A $28 million gain from selling digital assets partially offset those figures.

Bitcoin mining has become a harder business to run. Data shows the leading cryptocurrency has dropped 45% from its October high. Mining difficulty — a measure of how hard it is to earn new coins — has risen 58% since the last halving in May 2024. Those conditions squeezed margins across the industry, not just at Bitfarms.

Despite the losses, investors responded positively. Shares closed Tuesday up 6.60%, trading at 2.73 Canadian dollars, or roughly $1.96 US.

Bitcoin Holdings Still On The Books For Now

Reports indicate the company still holds about $161 million in Bitcoin that carries no debt against it. That reserve provides some financial flexibility as the transition continues.

Bitfarms is not alone in making this kind of shift. Iris Energy has been scaling AI cloud services using Nvidia graphics processors. Cipher Mining locked in a long-term hosting deal with AI cloud firm Fluidstack.

Riot Platforms and MARA Holdings have both expanded into AI and high-performance computing as well. The pattern reflects a broader move by mining companies seeking higher margins in a different corner of the tech sector.

For Bitfarms, the message from leadership is that the old business is done. What comes next is being built from the ground up — under a new name, in a new country, chasing a different market entirely.

Featured image from Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Over the years, the rivalry between Ethereum, Solana, and XRP has grown tougher, with investors staking their claims with their favorites. After the last bull run, though, Solana seemed to come out ahead, hitting new all-time highs before Ethereum, and completely outpacing XRP that never hit new peaks. But now, after the bull run is done and prices have begun to fall again, we take a look at which of these three have held up their value better.

Ethereum Holds Up Similarly To Bitcoin

Ethereum only briefly made a new peak of $4,953 last year, and this was very short-lived. As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, it is the digital asset that has most mirrored the Bitcoin performance during the decline, returning with similar numbers.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, the Ethereum price is down around 59% since 2025, not far off from Bitcoin’s 47% in the same time period. In a similar fashion, the daily trading volume is down more than 65% from its all-time high, mirroring the same pattern. Interestingly, the Ethereum price is up 6% on a year-to-date basis.

XRP’s Failure To Hit All-Time Highs Shows Weakness

Between 2024 and 2025, the XRP price was able to rally by around 600%, hitting about $3.5. However, even this major rally could not propel the altcoin price well enough to hit a new all-time high and break the 2017 $3.8 record. The price eventually peaked in 2025, and it has been downhill ever since.

With the XRP price trading below $1.5, this means that the altcoin is now more than 65% below its all-time high levels. On a year-to-date basis, the XRP price is down 37%, despite major developments such as the XRP Vs. SEC lawsuit coming to an end, and the advent of Vanguard allowing ETFs on its platform, among others.

Solana Rallied The Strongest, But Struggles The Most

The Solana price hit multiple new peaks during the last bull run, outperforming both XRP and Ethereum. But the decline has been just as strong as its rally. CoinMarketCap data shows that Solana is currently trading more than 71% below its $294 all-time high that was set in 2025.

Over the last year, the Solana price has crashed more than 35%, and this decline has seen it crash below $100 for the first time since 2024. Meme coin activity, which was the primary driver of the Solana price, has died down significantly, and this decline in activity has contributed to the bearish pressure.

Going by the data, the Ethereum price has held up the best, with XRP coming in second. The Solana price has suffered the most during this time, emerging the worse-off out of the three.

Data shows the transfer fees on the Bitcoin network has dropped to its lowest in 15 years, a sign of significant reduction in blockchain usage.

30-Day SMA Of Bitcoin Transaction Fees Has Seen A Massive Decline

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Total Transaction Fees. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the daily total amount of fees that senders are paying to the network every day.

Users attach transfer fees with their moves as compensation for the miners who handle them. The average amount of fees that senders opt for is usually related to the activity that’s occurring on the network.

The Bitcoin blockchain only has a limited capacity to process transactions, so whenever there is a high amount of transfer activity, the mempool can become clogged. When that happens, transfers can sometimes end up stuck in waiting for long.

Users who don’t want to wait for congestion to clear up can simply opt to pay a higher-than-average fee, incentivizing miners to prioritize their moves. As senders compete in this manner, the Total Transaction Fees can blow up.

In contrast, users have no need to attach any significant amount of fees with their transactions during periods of little activity, as the miners will quickly process their transfers regardless.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Total Transaction Fees over the history of the cryptocurrency:

As displayed in the above graph, the BTC-denominated Total Transaction Fees has witnessed its 30-day SMA go through a downtrend since the peak at the start of 2024. Interestingly, the decline maintained even as BTC observed multiple bull rallies to new all-time highs (ATHs).

This would imply that even the bullish price action was unable to attract network demand. A potential reason behind this could be the launch of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. The spot ETFs are investment vehicles that allow for an off-chain route of investment into the cryptocurrency.

These funds were approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) back in January 2024, which is when the Total Transaction Fees topped out. Considering the timing, it’s possible that the presence of the spot ETFs had a role to play in the decline in on-chain activity.

Today, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin Total Transaction Fees is sitting at 2.5 BTC per day, which is the lowest value since March 2011. “Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network,” noted the analytics firm.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has retraced its recent recovery as its price has dropped to the $67,900 mark.

Due to growing political tension and ongoing talks between the banking and cryptocurrency industries, TD Cowen has drastically lowered its estimate of the likelihood that the long-awaited CLARITY Act, the proposed US crypto market-structure bill, will become law this year. 

The investment bank’s managing director, Jaret Seiberg, now places the probability of Senate passage and subsequent House approval at roughly one‑in‑three, a markedly more pessimistic assessment than earlier expectations.

Coinbase And Banks Spar Over Stablecoin Yield 

Senators are reportedly preparing to circulate a revised draft of the CLARITY Act as soon as this week. The bill is intended to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, but one of its most consequential provisions would broadly prohibit platforms from providing yield “directly or indirectly” on stablecoins.

That restriction has prompted strong objections from major crypto firms and complicated talks with banking interests. Coinbase’s global head of investment research said last week the industry is coordinating a counterproposal.

Seiberg argues the proposed stablecoin restriction is fraught with tradeoffs. “The problem is that this would discourage investors from using stablecoins as a way to invest excess liquidity, which is why platforms like Coinbase would object,” he wrote. 

From the banks’ perspective, limiting stablecoin yield is also beneficial because it reduces the incentive for crypto platforms to use stablecoins for everyday payments — an outcome banks view as a threat to core deposits.

Beyond stablecoin yield, several other complex and unresolved subjects remain likely to shape final negotiations: safeguards for decentralized finance (DeFi), token classification, and rules for tokenizing real‑world assets (RWAs). 

Those issues have proven difficult to reconcile across the political and industrial divides, and they are keeping lawmakers and industry groups locked in detailed bargaining.

Senators Temper Optimism On Crypto Bill

TD Cowen’s Managing Director also noted that even lawmakers who had previously expressed confidence about passage are tempering expectations. 

Politico reported that Senator Mark Warner reduced his estimate for passage to between 50% and 60%, down from earlier forecasts near 80%. “The signs are not pointing to success,” Seiberg observed.

Seiberg expects the most likely window for action to be in late July, arguing that the threat of the recess could force senators toward compromise. “We see the prospects as lower. To us, there is a one‑in‑three probability for the Senate to advance a version of the CLARITY Act that the House will pass,” he wrote. 

He added that the only plausible route to enactment, in his view, would be for Congress to push through a compromise despite objections from both Coinbase and the banking sector — a scenario he described as possible but unlikely, since Congress usually only takes that course intermittently.

For now, uncertainty persists around whether the bill’s language can be adjusted to satisfy both sides. A key procedural milestone to watch is the markup date for the Senate Banking Committee, which will signal whether negotiators are ready to move from drafting to formal consideration.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is struggling below $70,000. The market is uncertain. And the players with the most to lose have quietly stopped selling.

Top analyst Darkfost has published an assessment that reframes the current consolidation in a way the price chart alone does not permit. Bitcoin is holding a range between $62,000 and $75,000 — a level that represents approximately 47% of the all-time high reached in October. That number deserves to sit with the reader for a moment. Nearly half the value created at the cycle peak has been erased. The market that produced that peak is not the market that exists today.

And yet, Darkfost identifies a behavioral shift that cuts directly against the bearish price narrative. Whale selling activity on Binance has been declining clearly and consistently. The large players — the ones whose selling pressure helped drive the correction from the October highs — appear to be stepping back. The distribution phase that defined the first quarter of 2026 is showing signs of exhaustion.

That does not make $70,000 a floor. It does not guarantee a recovery. What it means is that the overhead selling pressure that has capped every rally attempt is quietly losing its fuel — and that changes the market’s sensitivity to any new wave of demand.

The Selling Had a Peak. That Peak Has Passed.

Darkfost’s data places the whale behavior in a precise historical context. As Bitcoin approached the $60,000 level, large holders on Binance became acutely active — the kind of activity that signals distribution rather than accumulation.

The peak arrived on February 4th: more than 11,800 BTC sent to Binance in a single day, the highest single-session whale deposit recorded in the period under review. That number did not arrive in isolation. It was the culmination of an escalating trend that pushed the 30-day moving average of daily BTC inflows from approximately 1,000 BTC to nearly 4,000 BTC by the end of February — a fourfold increase in selling infrastructure in less than a month.

What has happened since is the development the report identifies as significant. Whale deposits have declined sharply. The 30-day moving average now sits at approximately 1,600 BTC per day — still above the pre-February baseline, but less than half the peak reading. The pipeline of large-holder selling that defined February has contracted considerably.

Darkfost’s interpretation is measured and should remain so. A decline in whale deposits is not a bullish signal. It is the removal of a bearish one. Large players appear to have shifted to a wait-and-see posture — neither aggressively distributing nor aggressively accumulating. In an uncertain market, that stillness is itself information.

The pressure from above is easing. The support from below has not yet appeared to replace it.

Bitcoin Holds $66K as Downtrend Structure Remains Intact

Bitcoin is trading around the $66,000–$67,000 range, stabilizing after a sharp breakdown that defined February’s price action. The chart shows a clear transition from distribution near the $90,000–$100,000 region into a strong impulsive move lower, followed by a period of consolidation between roughly $63,000 and $70,000.

Despite this stabilization, the broader structure remains bearish. BTC continues to trade below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both trending downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Each recent attempt to push higher has been rejected near the $70,000–$72,000 zone, reinforcing this level as a key ceiling in the current range.

Volume dynamics support this interpretation. The largest spike occurred during the capitulation phase in February, indicating forced selling or liquidations. Since then, volume has normalized, suggesting the market is in a reaccumulation or pause phase, but without clear bullish confirmation.

Importantly, price is now compressing toward the lower half of the range. Repeated tests of the $65,000–$66,000 area suggest demand is present, but not strong enough to drive expansion.

A break above $72,000 would shift short-term momentum, while losing $63,000 could trigger another leg down, potentially targeting lower liquidity zones.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Top Senate Democrats have questioned the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over its recent enforcement actions against President Donald Trump-linked crypto businesses and the sudden departure of the federal agency’s enforcement chief.

SEC Scrutinized Over Crypto Enforcement Actions

On Monday, US Senator Richard Blumenthal, Ranking Member of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, sent a letter to the SEC’s Chairman, Paul Atkins, requesting answers about the Commission’s alleged preferential treatment of crypto businesses and entities linked to President Trump against the advice of senior staff.

The letter follows recent reports that the Division of Enforcement Director, Margaret Ryan, left the agency after allegedly facing pressure from Trump officials to drop fraud charges against Tron’s founder, Justin Sun.

Blumenthal expressed concerns about Ryan’s sudden departure, as reports suggest that senior leadership may have intervened to prevent the division from investigating individuals close to President Trump.

The Senator highlighted that earlier this month, the agency dismissed fraud charges against Sun and several of his companies in a settlement that involved a $10 million civil penalty. He pointed out that “Sun has sought to curry favor with President Trump by buying into Trump family cryptocurrency ventures,” particularly the TRUMP memecoin and World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token.

“This is a clear example of how President Trump’s blatant crypto corruption creates back doors for his family’s business partners, creating a pay-to-play enforcement regime that turns a blind eye to grave threats to national security and consumer protection,” Blumenthal affirmed.

He requested that the SEC provide the records and communications related to enforcement decisions involving crypto firms, including companies linked to Justin Sun and Binance’s co-founder Changpeng Zhao.

Senator Blumenthal also asked for all records and communications between the Office of the Chairman and any member of the Trump or Witkoff families regarding WLFI or TRUMP, and a list of any other enforcement cases where the Director of the Division of Enforcement’s recommendations were overruled by Atkin’s Office or other SEC senior leaders.

Senators Question SEC Enforcement Chief’s Departure

Crypto-skeptic democratic Senator and Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee, Elizabeth Warren, also pressed the SEC’s Chairman on Monday, with a letter seeking answers about the sudden departure of the agency’s top enforcement official.

Warren also cited a recent Reuters report claiming that Ryan had clashed with agency leaders over the direction of its enforcement program, particularly the cases linked to President Trump and his family.

The SEC’s enforcement director resigned on March 16 after only six months on the job. According to people familiar with the matter, Ryan allegedly “wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct, including in cases that touched the president’s circle, but faced resistance from SEC chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican political appointees.”

In the letter, Warren noted Ryan’s unusually short term at the agency, calling it “deeply troubling” after the reported circumstances of her departure and the lack of a reason or successor.

“Typically, ‘S.E.C. enforcement chiefs serve for years.’ But on March 16, 2026, approximately six months into her tenure as Director, the Commission announced Judge Ryan’s resignation from the agency. The press release announcing her departure did not include a reason or name a successor. But news reports suggest that Judge Ryan may have been stymied in her efforts to enforce the law,” stated Warren.

Ultimately, the crypto-skeptic lawmaker expressed her concerns that the change in leadership under the Trump administration would hinder the Division of Enforcement’s ability to fulfill its mission.

Following new Google research highlighting an accelerating quantum-computing threat to crypto, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) weighed in with a pragmatic — if brisk — prescription: upgrade cryptography. 

In a social media post on X  (previously Twitter), the founder of the crypto exchange sought to ease concerns while acknowledging the technical and governance challenges ahead.

A Complex Task For The Crypto Industry 

Google’s whitepaper, published March 30, warned that the cryptographic foundations of most major digital assets are more vulnerable to quantum attacks than previously believed, noting that 6.9 million Bitcoin (BTC) are potentially at risk today, including about 1.7 million coins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.

CZ responded to the report with a straightforward message: “All crypto has to do is upgrade to Quantum‑Resistant (Post‑Quantum) Algorithms. So, no need to panic.” He balanced that reassurance with realism, warning that implementing post‑quantum cryptography across decentralized networks is difficult. 

Coordination problems, disputes over which algorithms to adopt, and the inevitable forks that may follow are likely. Some projects may never migrate, and CZ suggested that failing or dormant projects might be better off disappearing than becoming easier targets.

He also flagged practical risks that accompany any large‑scale cryptographic overhaul. New code can introduce vulnerabilities in the short term, and users who hold their own keys will need to migrate funds to upgraded wallets.

CZ raised an additional point about Satoshi’s coins. If those long‑dormant addresses move, it would strongly suggest that their owner is active; if they remain untouched for long enough, he proposed locking or effectively burning them to prevent them from becoming targets for attackers who might break old cryptography. 

New Steps Against Quantum Threats

The industry has already begun to move. Ethereum (ETH), which has publicly acknowledged the quantum risk, unveiled a new resource hub dedicated to post‑quantum security on March 25. 

Its co‑founder, Vitalik Buterin, previously emphasized the need for changes in how Ethereum stores data and signs transactions to remain secure against future quantum advances. 

On the Bitcoin side, BTQ Technologies released Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 on March 20, implementing the first working version of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP‑360), a practical experiment in quantum‑resilient signatures.

In short, the path forward is clear in principle: adopt quantum‑resistant algorithms and migrate wallets and smart contracts to new signature schemes. In practice, the process will be messy, contested, and technically challenging. 

Yet, CZ’s bottom line was optimistic: “Fundamentally: It’s always easier to encrypt than decrypt. More computing power is always good. Crypto will stay, post quantum,” the former Binance CEO said to conclude his social media post.  

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,833. According to CoinGecko data, this represents a 1% loss in the last 24 hours and a nearly 5% loss over the past week. 

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders are massively in loss, with just 3.2% of their supply sitting on some unrealized profit.

Vast Majority Of Bitcoin STH Supply Is In The Red

As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Bitcoin short-term holders as a whole are currently facing an underwater situation. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to move or sell them in the future. Since the STHs have a relatively short holding time, they may be considered to consist of the weak side of the market. The diamond hands are represented by the “long-term holders” (LTHs), who have been holding since longer than 155 days.

As the below chart shows, the Bitcoin STHs currently hold a total of 5,198,409 BTC in their balance.

It’s also visible in the graph that in terms of the trend, the STH supply has been sliding down recently, meaning that coins have been maturing into the LTH cohort. In other words, HODLing sentiment has been rising among holders alongside the market downturn.

While the STH supply has declined, its loss concentration has been maintained at high levels, as the Supply in Loss metric shows.

The Supply in Loss measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the BTC supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss right now. The indicator determines this by going through the on-chain history of each coin to find its last transaction price/cost basis.

Coins with an acquisition value higher than the latest spot price are put in the loss category. Another indicator called the Supply in Profit tracks the coins of the opposite type: those with a cost basis lower than BTC’s current value.The bearish market action in recent months has resulted in the Supply in Loss shooting up for the STHs, with its value today hitting the 96.8% level. At the same time, the  Supply in Profit has naturally plummeted, shrinking down to just 3.2%.

In some other news, a very old LTH has shifted their coins during the past day, as Maartunn has highlighted in another X post.

These tokens were held for more than ten years before being involved in this transaction, suggesting that either some lost coins have been rediscovered or a very resolute investor has decided to break their silence.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $66,600, down over 6% in the last seven days.